In November, with the coming of the northern heating season, demand has turned cold, especially in the ceramics industry. Downstream demand has decreased. Due to the relationship between supply and demand, most ceramic raw materials have fallen slightly.
Taking caustic soda as an example, although this year was affected by factors such as the “National Day Market”, environmental protection, and major factory emergencies, there have been rising prices, but like most ceramic raw materials in the ceramic industry, due to the decline in downstream demand, it is affected by supply and demand. The price of ceramic raw materials has gradually returned to rationality.
At the same time, the prices of raw materials such as titanium dioxide and thermal coal have all fallen slightly.
Reduced demand, prices fell 3.58% in one week
According to commodity data monitoring, titanium dioxide prices have fallen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic titanium dioxide price was 15,833.33 yuan / ton, and the average weekend price was 15,266.67 yuan / ton. During the week, the price fell by 3.58%.
Ceramic Raw Material Prices
According to the data published by the Internet, the domestic rutile titanium dioxide ex-factory price of tax is 14500-15500 yuan / ton, the anatase titanium dioxide ex-factory price of tax is 12500-14000 yuan / ton, and the price of chlorinated titanium dioxide is 18500- 20,000 yuan / ton.
Downstream demand is light, and the titanium dioxide market as a whole is in a weak downward state. At the same time, the prices of raw materials titanium ore and natural gas have risen, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide enterprises is relatively large. Enterprises may limit production early or enter maintenance.
As for the price trend of titanium dioxide in the future, as the northern region gradually cools down and demand gradually shrinks, the current demand market is not optimistic. The prices of raw materials titanium ore and natural gas have gone up, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide enterprises is relatively large. In the short term, the price or stalemate of titanium dioxide has stabilized, and the actual operation is based on the respective tasks.
Impacted by imported coal, prices fell by 1.06%
According to the data released by the business agency on November 19, the price of thermal coal has decreased by 1.06% compared with the beginning of the month. It is reported that the decline in prices is mainly due to the increasing number of domestic coal imports since this year. The market has caused some shocks.
At the same time, since October, domestic power plants and other coal consumption have decreased compared to September, and the overall demand for thermal coal has also decreased, which has also caused a certain degree of suppression on its price. However, as the northern heating season approaches, thermal coal prices may stop falling.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Rising after 12 consecutive days of decline
With the coming of the northern heating season, after 12 consecutive days of decline, LNG prices finally ushered in a rise. From November 2nd, domestic LNG prices continued to fall for 12 days. On the 14th, they stopped falling and rose, and then ushered in a new round of rises. Price tide. According to data published on the Internet, the average domestic LNG price on November 01 was 4,750 yuan / ton, and the average price on the 13th was 4,046.67 yuan / ton. The LNG price fell 14.81% for several days, and the LNG price rebounded on the 14th, and the average price It was 4,090 yuan / ton, up 1.07% from the previous day, and down 8.35% from the same period last year.
On November 15, central heating in northern cities officially started, and LNG prices in some northern regions began to increase in advance. Mainly due to the continuous decline in LNG prices in the early period, the company’s cost inversion is frequent, taking into account the problem of losses, upstream companies are pushing up sentiment is high.
The price of 48% ion membrane caustic soda in Jiangxi has experienced a roller coaster this year. After the Spring Festival, the price increased three times, from May 21 to July 6, the price was reduced six times, and from August 25 to September 27, the price increased eight times, an increase of nearly 30%. After October 20, the price Began to fall back.
Unlike the soaring situation of caustic soda in Jiangxi, the price of 50% ion membrane caustic soda used in Guangdong this year has maintained a relatively stable trend, with annual price fluctuations of only a few hundred yuan, and the lowest price of the year in September.
In the ceramics industry, according to the previous rules, raw material prices tend to rise more and less, taking caustic soda as an example. Although this year was affected by factors such as the “National Day market”, environmental protection, and major factory emergencies, there has been a rise in prices, but with ceramics Like most ceramic raw materials in the industry, due to the decrease in downstream demand and the impact of supply and demand, the prices of ceramic raw materials have gradually returned to rationality.
Phosphate and quartz sand, which are also raw materials for ceramic degumming agents, have also experienced large fluctuations in price this year. Phosphate is mainly affected by the price of yellow phosphorus.
On July 3 this year, CCTV’s “Focus Interview” exposed the situation of yellow phosphorus pollution in Guizhou, which triggered an environmental storm in the yellow phosphorus industry. The production of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was suspended and rectified, and all relevant production enterprises in Guizhou stopped production, which directly caused In response to the soaring price of yellow phosphorus, the price of phosphate has also risen. Now, as yellow phosphorus production enterprises return to normal, prices have started to fall and stabilized.
Quartz sand, as a non-renewable mineral resource, has been in a rising state in recent years with the influence of factors such as the country’s strengthening of illegal ore control and the shortage of supply.
Leading companies develop alternative materials for caustic soda
The main raw material of ceramic degumming agent is water glass, and the main raw material of water glass is caustic soda. The rising price of caustic soda also leads to the rising cost of degumming agent.
Industry insiders pointed out that due to the fierce competition in the dissolving agent industry, it is difficult to increase the downstream selling price, resulting in a substantial decline in profits of the dissolving agent manufacturer, or even a loss. For ceramic enterprises, the impact is not large, mainly because of its low proportion in the raw material system of the ceramic factory.
At the same time, there are many suppliers of degumming agents, and the price increase is not large. Even in order to seize the market, although the price of raw materials has risen, the price of finished products has been reduced, which has led to a significant decline in profits.
“Degumming agent is a stock market, and it is a market for reducing weight. On the one hand, a large number of ceramic factories have disappeared, and the demand for degumming agents has declined. On the other hand, the demand for degumming agents in ceramics in the past few years has led to A large number of tiny degumming agent manufacturers have been launched, which has intensified competition. “A raw material buyer in Jiangxi pointed out.
At the same time, he also called for the government to purify the production environment of degumming agents, to ban those companies that have no license, no license, and environmental protection standards, and create a level playing field.
It is understood that in theory, water glass can also be made from sodium-containing materials other than caustic soda, such as soda ash, but because soda ash is more expensive and the conversion rate is not as high as caustic soda, under the current technical conditions, caustic soda is still The best choice for water glass production.
In order to cope with the cost pressure brought by rising raw materials, as the leader of the domestic degreasing industry, Otao Technology began to increase research and development efforts this year, looking for alternative materials, and is expected to launch some innovative products in the future, such as the need for caustic soda. Molecular polymer.
At the same time, Otao Technology will also invest in the construction of a new production base in Tengxian County, Guangxi, so as to seize the opportunity of ceramic industry transfer, shorten the supply distance, and further consolidate its professional position in the glue industry.
The price of caustic soda is greatly affected by the price of alumina. For the price trend of caustic soda in the future, the agency predicts that in November, it is difficult for China to change the downward trend of caustic soda. At present, the long-term price of caustic soda for alumina is not yet determined. The caustic soda market has shown signs of decline, and the downstream alumina industry has seen significant price reductions. It is expected that the long-term price may fall.
As for the price trend of next year, people in the industry generally don’t dare to conclude early. Due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war, exports have been blocked, leading to a decline in alumina production and a drop in demand for alkali. China’s current production capacity has reached 100% by the end of 2018. 42.59 million tons, so it is basically certain that the possibility of large fluctuations in the price of caustic soda in the future will be reduced.